Featured

Foundation time series models for forecasting and policy evaluation in infectious disease epidemics

Epidemic forecasting and policy evaluation rely on mathematical models to predict infectious disease trends and assess the impact of …

Suprabhath Kalahasti, Benjamin Faucher, Boxuan Wang (王博玄), Claudio Ascione, Ricardo Carbajal, Maxime Enault, Cristophe Vincent Cassis, Titouan Launay, Caroline Guerrisi, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Federico Baldo, Eugenio Valdano

Foundation time series models for forecasting and policy evaluation in infectious disease epidemics

Complexity72h: training the next generation of researchers in complex systems

Traditional academic training of early-career researchers is often conditional to the funding, structure and managerial style of the …

Alberto Antonioni, Eugenio Valdano

Complexity72h: training the next generation of researchers in complex systems

Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial for projecting the evolution of an infectious disease epidemic and for guiding …

Piero Birello, Michele Re Fiorentin, Boxuan Wang (王博玄), Vittoria Colizza, Eugenio Valdano

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those …

Benjamin Steinegger, Iacopo Iacopini, Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Alberto Bracci, Pau Casanova-Ferrer, Alberto Antonioni, Eugenio Valdano

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Twenty-six million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa; epidemics are widely dispersed, due to high levels of mobility. …

Eugenio Valdano, Justin T. Okano, Vittoria Colizza, Honore K. Mitonga, Sally Blower

Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study

Background

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission …

Marius Gilbert, Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Eric D'Ortenzio, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Serge Paul Eholie, Mathias Altmann, Bernardo Gutierrez, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Vittoria Colizza

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study